11/18/2010 大盘回顾 （VIX to VXV ratio is a little low）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is *BUY, not confirmed though. 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL Uptrend not confirmed. I closed long, hold short overnight for a speculation play, not because it’s safe to do so. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 11/26 11/21 : 11/22 Next pivot date: 11/24 – 11/26

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. 11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks. T2122 NYSE 4 week new high/low ratio is oversold relative to the recent history readings. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold. 6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Buy setup triggered. There’s a potential validity problem though. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 21 unfilled gaps, the max was 21. 10/29 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) *6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model *11/18 L 1.9*ATR(10) *There still is a validity problem unless up huge tomorrow. NYMO Sell 11/12 S Breakeven Reference only, not meant to be followed.

 

SHORT-TERM: REITERATE THAT WE’LL SEE THE 2ND LEG DOWN

 

Reiterate 2 leg down pattern mention in 11/16 Market Recap. The first leg down肯定是over了，我不知道反弹能走多远，wait and see吧。从Fib看，Fib 61.8% at 11/15 highs可能是关注的重点。

 

 

现在最大的问题是VIX to VXV ratio有点低，所以可能反弹走不了多远，当然，明天要像今天这样大涨特涨，那很可能就是另一个故事了哈。

 

 

别的没啥说的，SPY ST Model buy setup confirmed today，因此应该是enter long postion，问题是看起来还是有validity的问题，除非明天大涨特涨，否则可能周一就得close long, so beware。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE FIRST 2.5%+ PULLBACK AFTER A 40+ STRAIGHT UP TRADING DAYS WAS USUALLY A BUY

 

See 11/12 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY, BULLISH FRIDAY, BULLISH THE WHOLE WEEK

 

See 11/12 Market Recap for more details.

 

For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	11/16 S
NDX Weekly	UP	NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA		Big red bar means more pullbacks ahead, so be careful.
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	11/16 S
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT
TLT Weekly	DOWN	%B is a little too low.
FXE		3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): ChiOsc is way too high.
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	11/16 S
GDX Weekly	UP	BPGDM and GDX:SPX both are too high. Pullback?
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP	%B is too high with negative divergence.
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	11/16 S
XLB Weekly	UP	XLB:SPX a little too high.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

happyface

沙发

superxy

THX!
Don't know if to follow ST model this time

dreampen

Thanks !

xiaoxiaozhang

Thanks!

福多多

X中国陆军

开小差

thx,ding

胡同儿串子

Ave

西安

阳光明媚

thanks!

jWishbone

Thanks.

chickencoop

thanks

slcgh

everest001

greatinter

acoust

First page!

wnd4

thanks

t-k