11/12/2010 大盘回顾 （77% chances the SPX 11/05 high will be revisited）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is *SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is down. I hold tiny short position over weekend. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 11/14,11/26 11/21 : 11/22 Next pivot date: 11/24 – 11/26

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. *11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 2 weeks. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 20 unfilled gaps, the max was 21. 10/29 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 11/12 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes. 11/05 Market Recap: 70%+ chances SPX will close below 1225 on weekly chart within 2 weeks. 6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch: SPX new high while NYMO is negative, topped? 6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish reversal day, so topped? 8.1.4 Normalized CPC: A little low. 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line breakout, top to be confirmed. 0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Too high, so topped? *1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Descending Triangle, target $118.37. *11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L 11/08 Low Stopped out on 11/09 with profit. NYMO Sell *11/12 S 2*ATR(10) Reference only, not meant to be followed.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE PULLBACKS

 

短期可能see more pullbacks，理由除了周五的After Bell Quick Summary里提到的Descending Triangle plus Bear Flag plus bearish Monday seasonality以外，Sentimentrader still has too many indicators at bearish extremes。不过，基本上，the pullback应该是短期性质的，下面的intermediate-session会证明，chances are high that 11/05 high will be revisited at least。

 

 

0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals，这个follow up一下，trend line held for 2 days already，因此算是confirm top了。当然，前面说了，暂时定性为short-term pullback。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE FIRST 2.5%+ PULLBACK AFTER A 40+ STRAIGHT UP TRADING DAYS WAS USUALLY A BUY

 

After 48 trading days without 2.5% pullbacks，周五，SPX总算fulfill了11/08 Market Recap提到2.5%+ pullbacks now or never的forecast，现在的问题是，what happened thereafter？

 

从下面的统计看，10 out of 13 cases (exclude 2 cases when SPX up 150 trading days without 2.5%+ pullbacks, both cases had just a very short-term pullback anyway) since 1991，三周内都会revisit the previous high。换句话说就是11/05 high是the intermediate-term top的几率不高，至少牛牛可以等到revisit the 11/05 high的时候再决定下一步。

 

 

当然，非常有必要指出，现在的sentiment非常high，从下面的Smart/Dump Money Confidence chart就可以看出来了，因此如果真有revisit high的动作，我估计届时sentiment会high到天上去，这个对牛牛是不利的，we’ll keep eyes on this as well as institutional buying and selling actions (courtesy of stocktiming) which now is lukewarm at best.

 

 

下面的图是历次SPX up 40 or more trading days without 2.5%+ pullbacks的情况，供参考。可以看到绝大多数情况，pullback只是short-term，the previous high was revisited soon.

 

 

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY, BULLISH FRIDAY, BULLISH THE WHOLE WEEK

 

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before November Expiration, Dow down 7 of last 10.
2. Week before Thanksgiving, Dow up 13 of last 16.
3. November expiration day, Dow up 4 straight and 6 of last 7.

For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	10/15 L
NDX Weekly	UP	NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA		*Big red bar means more pullbacks ahead, so be careful.
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	08/31 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		ChiOsc is too low.
TLT Weekly	DOWN	*%B is a little too low.
FXE		*Broadening Top? The breakout is bilateral, so wait.
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	10/29 L
GDX Weekly	UP	*BPGDM and GDX:SPX both are too high. Pullback?
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP	*%B is too high with negative divergence.
XLF	10/15 L	Complex Head and Shoulders Bottom or Double Bottom breakout, target $16.74.
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	11/02 L
XLB Weekly	UP	XLB:SPX a little too high.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

agang

Thank you Cobra!

德州牛仔

萧秋水

地板！

wangbin

thanks

littlevivi

ding!

IMeMyself

thanks

maomi

than you!

源济

q2model

Thanks for the hard work and info

oldfox

atrader

thanks

lijinglj

first page

busywind

thanks!

navybean

易自通

回复 1# Cobra


   

yuxiaohong

thanks。

COS

开小差

thx,ding

southware

蛇班辛苦了