11/09/2010 大盘回顾 （Bullish Bearish Engulfing）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is SELL, not confirmed though. 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is down but not confirmed, I hold no position overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 11/04,11/14,11/26 11/06 : 11/07 Next pivot date: 11/04 – 11/08, 11/24 – 11/26

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 21 unfilled gaps, the max was 21. 10/29 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): NYSI STO(5,3,3) sell signal. T2111, percent of NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(200) is a little bit high. T2112, percent of NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(40) is a little bit high. 11/04 Market Recap: Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50) is too high. 11/04 Market Recap: 41% of Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes. 11/05 Market Recap: 70%+ chances SPX will close below 1225 on weekly chart within 2 weeks. *6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch: SPX new high while NYMO is negative, topped? *6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish reversal day, so topped?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L 11/08 Low *Stopped out on 11/09 with profit. NYMO Sell   *Short if SPY tomorrow’s open > tomorrow’s close. The stop loss is 2*ATR(10). *Reference only, not meant to be followed.

 

SHORT-TERM: BEARISH ENGULFING WAS BULLISH FOR THE NEXT DAY, BEARISH A WEEK LATER

 

今天market整了无数个Bearish Engulfing (see ETFs table below)，见下图，这玩艺suppose bearish reversal 79% of the time，但是back test since 2003 (no obvious edges if test starts from 1991)的结果却是明天very very bullish，居然有85%的机会收绿，此外，intermediate-term 2 to 4 weeks，也是very very bullish，所以今天的market action顶多是说可能有短期回调，但是intermediate-term still bullish。

 

 

下面的图从另一个角度看今天的棒棒，open high forming higher high then close lower，因此是个bearish reversal day，从图中看，这个bearish reversal day，基本上都工作，虽然最近效果不如以前的好。所以again，短期回调的可能性很大，当然，应该是在明天反弹之后，如果上面关于Bearish Engulfing的统计工作的话。

 

 

6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch，这个提一下，因为table above里使用同样原理的，NYMO Sell setup明天可能触发，又是call顶，准不准，who knows，反正有60%以上的机会，如果明天open high close lower confirm的话。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX MAY SHOOT HIGH THEN FALL BACK TO WHERE IT STARTS WHICH USUALLY IS THE 2ND BUY OPPORTUNITY

 

See 11/05 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: LAST 2 MONTHS OF YEAR ARE BULLISH

 

See 10/29 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	10/15 L	*Bearish Engulfing.
NDX Weekly	UP	%B too high with negative divergence. NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal. NDX:SPX too high. Too far away from MA(200) (PPO(1,40,1) too high).
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA	07/15 L
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM		ChiOsc is too high with 2 hollow red bars.
EEM Weekly	UP	EEM:SPX too high.
XIU.TO	08/31 L	TOADV MA(10) too high. *Bearish Engulfing and channel overshoot.
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		ChiOsc is too low.
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD		*Bearish Engulfing.
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	10/29 L	*Bearish Engulfing.
GDX Weekly	UP	BPGDM too high, pullback?
USO		*WTIC rejected by resistance. *Bearish Engulfing.
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L	*Dark Cloud Cover, well, sort of.
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L	Complex Head and Shoulders Bottom or Double Bottom breakout, target $16.74.
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	11/02 L	*Bearish Engulfing.
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE overbought. XLB:SPX a little too high.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

STEVEN

alf

alf

bokchoy888

blueukc

good

q2model

thx

驻马望千门

谢谢！

oldfox

square

Thanks a lot.

q13117

Thank you for hard work and appreciate it.

PacificLegend

everest001

happyface

thx

Zephyr

ppteam

bears need follow through

wxp

can2000

thanks

wai-po

many thanks.

n748

based on recent history, 明天恐怕又要大涨特涨了.